Live or Pre Match betting ?

One of the most popular tactics of the game in bookmakers is to bet on the favorites. This is due to a number of reasons, usually psychological. First, many players find it difficult to make a decision to bet against a clear leader – he usually wins. Second, most newcomers just tend to put “like everyone else”. They say that if most people bet on this team, then I will also bet on it – they have more experience. Well, and third, like “professionals”, tracking the movement of the line, put on falling odds, because they believe that insiders learned something before the match(pre-match) and poured a lot of money into the favorite.

All this leads to the fact that most betting enthusiasts pull until the very beginning of the match, bet on the favorite with a minimum coefficient, and eventually give their money to the office. Of course, it may be not specifically from this bet, but in General, that is, at a distance.

Why so? Yes, because in practice, everything is not the same as in the fantasies of most players. To the office “strictly parallel” as any of the matches specified in the line will end. When calculating primary quotes, they naturally take into account the strengths and weaknesses of teams, their latest results, and so on… But first of all, the mathematical expectation of the total amount of bets on each of the outcomes is taken into account. That is why the coefficient for the favorite is usually somewhat underestimated, and for the outsider – overstated. And then the fun begins. Since the line is formed long before the start of matches(pre-match), the coefficients begin to change depending on the” popularity ” of the outcome. It turns out that players who track the movement of the line do not see the real probability of winning one or the other team, but the difference in the amount of money placed on them. And in the end, they put “like everyone else”.

Hence the conclusion. You can play on favorites, but you need to bet on them shortly after the event appeared in the line. At this point, the coefficient will accurately reflect the probability of the outcome. But, most importantly, it will be most profitable for the player. Don’t be afraid to bet on an outsider. Statistics of any championship show that the grandees lose no less often than their colleagues from the middle of the table. However, in this case, the bet should be held until the start of the match, when the “professionals” will lower the leader’s KEF and raise (often very significantly) the outsider’s quotes.